Will Romney Lose Like In 2008? Is Gingrich McCain 2.0?
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An article at The Hill has raised an interesting point about Mitt Romney’s front runner status and how he ended up losing the nomination to John McCain.
As Mitt Romney looks at where his presidential bid stands, he must get an uncomfortable feeling of “déjà vu all over again,” as Yogi Berra would say.
But so far, Romney’s backers on Capitol Hill are remaining publicly unruffled, insisting that the differences between then and now are more important than the parallels.
“He is both a much better campaigner and running a much better campaign than was the case four years ago,” Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.) told The Hill.
Campbell, who endorsed Romney in 2008 and has done so again this cycle, added: “Four years ago, he was tentative. This time he is much more confident, much more comfortable.”
But Romney’s improvement as a candidate does not necessarily neutralize the uncomfortable similarities to 2008.
Then, as now, he was anointed as a front-runner by the media.
Then as now, he was the best-financed candidate in the race, and the one with the strongest appeal to what remains of the GOP establishment.
Yet then, as now, despite these considerable advantages, he failed to close the deal with the Republican electorate, in large part because of a visceral distrust of him among many of the party’s grassroots supporters.
Four years ago this month, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee surged in the GOP polls, setting the stage for his January 2008 victory in Iowa. Romney had spent $10 million in the Hawkeye State, but his campaign never regained its equilibrium.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) defeated Romney in next-to-vote New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. That, for all intents and purposes, was that.
This time, it seems former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) poses the gravest threat.
But Gingrich, with his three marriages and taste for Tiffany jewelry, seems a less powerful magnet for the votes of social conservatives than was Huckabee, who spent 12 years as a Baptist pastor.
Couple that with the absence of a rival who could make a very strong case for national electability — the role filled by McCain last time around — and it becomes clearer why Romney supporters on Capitol Hill show little public sign of nerves.
“As your options whittle down, you get more practical about what you’re doing,” Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), who endorsed Romney both in 2008 and now, told The Hill. “People will gravitate toward the people who can beat Obama, and that is what they really care about. Romney may not be anybody’s perfect candidate, but he is pretty clearly the best general election candidate.”
Better hope that Newt Gingrich is not the 2012 version of John McCain. Rick Perry anyone?
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