If Romney Loses Michigan Is He Doomed?
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It is never a good sign when a politician may lose a state he claims as one of his own. But Michigan might be really considered Mitt Romney’s home state since he left it 46 years ago, even though he is claiming it his home. This may backfire in the perception game if he loses the state to Rick Santorum. From the LA Times:
Mitt Romney left his native Michigan behind 46 years ago. He has returned repeatedly during a presidential pursuit that is now in its sixth year, but rarely with the desperation evinced now.
“Michigan’s been my home, and this is personal,” Romney says in a new TV ad that features vintage black-and-white photos, including one of a teen-aged Mitt and his square-jawed father, the state’s late governor, George Romney.
The candidate was speaking of the state’s economic distress, but might as well have been addressing his presidential campaign, whose fate could rest on whether he beats back a strong challenge by his newest chief opponent, Rick Santorum, in the state’s Feb. 28 primary.
Evoking home-state memories proved effective when Romney won the Republican primary four years ago, but this year’s effort comes with a strategic twist.
Romney won in 2008 with lopsided support from the most conservative quarter of the GOP electorate, against the more moderate John McCain. This time, Romney’s support is weakest among self-described “very conservative” Republicans, who see him as too moderate — and he is trying to prove his conservative credentials anew.
The Republican right is increasingly lining up behind Santorum, a social conservative who presents the most serious threat yet to Romney’s nomination chances. Polls indicate that Michigan could go either way, making Romney’s attempt at repositioning himself a particularly acute task in this state, the first in the industrial Midwest to award delegates and a place where a loss could be shattering.
Romney is promoting what he says were his conservative achievements as governor in left-leaning Massachusetts, including resisting efforts to make same-sex marriage available to couples from out of state. This is a strategy heavy with risk, now and in a general election. In describing himself as “severely conservative” to conservative activists last week, he drew attention to his past history of moderate positions on social issues, including abortion and gay rights, and the state healthcare law that became a model for President Obama’s national plan. At the same time, his self-characterization risks alienating the middle-of-the-road voters he would need in November.
On Wednesday, Romney launched his Michigan primary campaign with a rally in Grand Rapids, the capital of the state’s conservative western side. But his lead in national opinion surveys has melted away, and new public and private polls show him trailing in Michigan…
Unless Super Tuesday is an even split, we should hopefully have a clear nominee after it.
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